Getting ahead of technology change can be an elusive goal. Fortunately, there are some tools to assist in understanding potential tech changes ahead. This post provides a look into Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, what technology change it has predicted over the past 10 years, and what it predicts for the next 10. In this post an explanation of the hype cycle is presented followed by Gartner’s release of the cycle each of the past 10 years.
I feel fortunate to be involved in several exciting technology projects for Human Capital and Workforce Management including blockchain and cryptocurrency. There is unlimited potential for these technologies however these advancements are not new, although to the general public these ideas are fresh. Blockchain currently sits in Gartner’s “Trough of Disillusionment” (the 3rd of 5) phase of the cycle. Being in this stage of the hype cycle is not a bad thing; as you will read below, it represents a phase when technology businesses start to thrive and fail at the same time. Paving the way for successful application and general business usage.
Gartner and Hype Cycle Overview
Gartner (www.gartner.com) is a world leading business research and advisory company. Gartner developed ‘the hype cycle’ a graphical presentation for representing the maturity, adoption and application of specific technologies.
Here are the five key phases of the hype cycle, developed by Gartner, for a technologies life cycle (Wikipedia at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle).
No.PhaseDescription1Technology TriggerA potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.2Peak of Inflated ExpectationsEarly publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most don’t.3Trough of DisillusionmentInterest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.4Slope of EnlightenmentMore instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.5Plateau of ProductivityMainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. If the technology has more than a niche market then it will continue to grow.[5]
The following general view of the hype cycle provides more insight on the type of business activity that happens in each segment of the hype cycle.
A lot of technology change has happened over the past 10 years and is projected to come in the next 10. Below are the last 10 Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technology charts starting from 2018 to 2008. Some questions you may ask yourself when viewing these charts include:
What technologies predicted to make an impact in the past succeed? What technologies failed?
What technologies that are predicted to be emerging in the next 10 years do I need to know about now? What do I need to do about it now?
Some technologies that are currently ‘hyped’ seem to have great promise? Where are they actually on Gartner’s hype cycle now? What does that mean about their value and potential success?
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
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